Progression Betting

With horse betting, or any kind of betting, anything other than flat betting is in fact a kind of progression . . . but the subject in this article is (as it should be) a bit controversial: Raising bets after losses.

“Gamblers Ruin” is a term (not quite as scary as it sounds) used to denote a loss of betting bankroll. Though that is something that should be avoided at all cost – it really isn’t actually the “ruin” of the horse bettor – but it will put him out of the game until a new betting bankroll has been scraped together.

The surest way to “Gamblers Ruin” is the infamous “Martingale” method of doubling up after each loss. A gambler sticking to one of the even money bets in – gclub say Roulette – will only be operating at about a 1.5 percent disadvantage. If that player has a huge bankroll and starts with a minimum bet, he might be able to make a true “Martingale” betting method work for days, weeks, even months – who knows?

Sooner or later, however, a vicious and prolonged losing streak will come along which will take the gambler past his ability to make the next bet – either because his bankroll has been severely depleted, or because he doesn’t have the nerve to make the next bet.

Example: Say his minimum starting bet is $5.00 – and he encounters a losing streak of 15 in a row. Here are the required bets for doubling up on each loss:

5 – 10 – 20 – 40 -80 – 160 – 320 – 640 – 1280 – 2560 – 5120 – 10,240 – 20,480 – 40,960 – 81,920

. . . and bet number 16 would call for $163,840 – just to get back his original $5.00 bet and end up with a paltry $5.00 in profit!!

The insanity of it is obvious.

In horse race betting, an extended losing streak of 15 races is not that rare for win-betting – particularly if you’re going after higher paying horses.

Now, if you played only select 4-5, 1-1, and 6-5 types to approximate the even money roulette bets, a 15 race streak might never happen. Even a 10 race losing streak would be extremely rare – but, my gosh, after chasing a 10 race losing streak down while doubling up just to get back a little profit on your original bet?

Your ROI would be pitiful!

A player could, however, scale way back from the “doubling up” betting mode. Variations on the following have been put forth before – the idea is this:

Find a horse bet that has a good winning percentage – say 35% or higher. Flat bet it until an average length losing streak has been encountered – say 5 races – and only then start the betting progression. You then run the progression until you have “cleared” the series – i.e. recovered losses and gained a profit.

But those visions keep coming back – of the Martingale maniac sweating blood as he steps up to make his next “bridge jumper” sized bet – trying only to just GET BACK TO EVEN!

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